Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting

A valid forecast must include the impacts on and of a technology's introduction and adoption because external factors in the technology delivery system (TDS), such as societal values and institutional regulation, may impinge on its development. The technology forecaster also must consider product acceptance, impacts on broad segments of society, and changes arising from the adoption of the technology. Thus, impact assessment is part of each of the three phases of technology forecasting (see Section 3.2) and relies heavily on the TDS. In the exploring phase, IA is “quick and dirty,” and identifies likely impacts on the development of the technology by external factors and likely impacts of the technology on users and, more broadly, on society as a whole. Only impacts considered to be significant from the perspective of the forecast are retained for further analysis. A preliminary determination of the magnitude of the impacts may be in order. In the analyzing phase, impacts of concern are analyzed in greater depth and the results are factored into the forecast. In the final focusing phase, important impacts are further analyzed and may be evaluated. Results of this phase are typically factored into plans for the development and deployment of the technology.

Since impact identification has general utility in technology forecasting, this chapter strives to give the forecaster a good start by presenting useful techniques. Impact analysis ...