Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

4.4 Conclusion

This chapter began exposition of the forecasting process by describing its first phase, exploring. It introduced TDS and monitoring, which respectively are the primary model and the premier technique for technology forecasting. Building the context for the TDS was considered in some detail, as were the needs, techniques, and strategies for monitoring. Lastly, methods of enhancing the creativity of the forecast team were presented.

All of these topics are important for the remaining two phases of the forecasting project: analyzing and focusing. The TDS is used as an integrating theme throughout the book. Monitoring is emphasized as central to all phases of the forecast. In fact, the central question about monitoring is whether it will be formally done with an organizational commitment or informally done as part of the daily work routine. The answer to this question is pertinent to every phase of technology development in the corporate, government, and university environments. Finally, creativity is indispensable to envision the future.