Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time

Recall that Section 3.1.2 noted six types of information the forecaster needs to supply for technology decision making. Forecasting projects that provided the right information at the right time are described in this section. The Firestone Company, for instance, projected the substitution of radial for bias ply tires in the U.S. market. United Technology Corporation has used substitution forecasts to plan the introduction of new aircraft engines. Historical examples of successful forecasts of the substitution of one technology for another also include fiber-optic cable for copper wire and office facsimile machines for overnight delivery services (Vanston 1985).

Philips Medical Systems is a part of Royal Phillips Electronics that sells medical systems. It develops road maps for different topics, including clinical research and technology road maps. These forecasts are institutionalized to become an integral part of their innovation process, and they help reduce the lead time for innovations. Roadmap construction also has enabled the company to better structure and streamline its innovation process (Van der Duin 2006). Thus, Philips is using forecasting to help manage its R&D processes.

Vanston (1985) notes that it is common for firms to assign monetary values to technologies during their development cycle. This provides a measurement of a technology's present and potential worth that can be used to decide resource allocation. ...