Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

Chapter 8

Economic and Market Analysis

Chapter Summary: Changes in technology are probably the most important sources of change in the structure and performance of the world's economies. Economic factors, in turn, are crucial to the introduction and acceptance of new technologies within the global marketplace. This chapter describes the interrelationship between economics, markets, and technology and shows how economic and market forecasting can aid technology forecasters and managers. Economic analysis and other tools for anticipating market responses are described, with emphasis on their use by managers.

The chapter begins by describing how technological progress has enhanced economic well-being, albeit sometimes with considerable collateral damage. From the broad view of national and global economies, the discussion shifts to how economic forces play out in the markets for specific technologies. Next, the role of social institutions in the growth of technology applications is discussed and the issues of forecasting within an institutional context are raised. Finally, specific models that are useful in forecasting are described as aids in determining both the likely environment for adoption and the more specific opportunities for particular technologies.