Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

A.3 The Rest of the Story

Section A.2 described a number of methods applied in one case analysis. While quite rich and diverse, these methods do not cover all of the key elements of a comprehensive technology forecast. This section draws upon the chapters in this book to indicate what else might be done to round out the DSSC technology forecast.

Chapter 6 introduced various modeling and simulation approaches. One could imagine applying system dynamics to help elucidate energy technology market dynamics in conjunction with pricing and environmental considerations. Decision analyses and options analyses might be used to explore the value of various policy actions to increase the attractiveness of renewable energy to various consumers and other stakeholders.

Chapter 7 begins with material related to the focusing phase of forecasting. Guo et al. (submitted) performed a limited market needs assessment. Drawing on other sources (c.f. Macias and Teske 2008), they note various ways in which one could partition the solar cell market. One partition that differs from those noted in the TDS (Figure A.2) is between electric grid–connected solar cells (over 90% of the current sales) and off-grid systems. The latter could be designed to provide power for communities in the developing world that lack access to electric grids or to power a wide range of consumer products.

One might also want to examine energy technology roadmaps to garner ideas on solar cell prospects, competition, and forces to ...