Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

Chapter 5

Gathering and Using Information

Chapter Summary: This chapter explores two major ways of gaining data for the technology forecast. One technique is to consult experts. Another is to sift content from sources such as the Internet. The chapter concludes with strategies for presenting and communicating forecast-relevant information.

Technology forecasts are successful when the forecaster is able to integrate diverse sources of information to produce convincing and holistic portraits of possible futures. Technology forecasters need two types of information—information about the technology and information about its context (i.e., the TDS). In addition to conventional written materials, they seek this information from experts and the Internet. Since approaches to accessing conventional sources are well known, this chapter emphasizes acquiring information from the latter two sources.

Technology experts can contribute in-depth knowledge in specific fields of the environmental and physical sciences and technology. They can provide expertise in every step of the development process from discovery to commercialization. Societal experts can give insight into governments, public and private organizations, and society at large, as well as provide knowledge about world regions and cultures. Technologies are demanded and supplied by society. Thus, the forecaster must not overlook the complex web of societal rules, incentives, and obligations that characterize the TDS.

“The Internet” ...