Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

1.4 Conclusions

While it may be interesting, educational, and fun to explore the future of technologies for the sake of the knowledge itself, applying the methods presented in this book requires resources. The use of those resources must be justified by the value the forecast produces for the organization. That value will come from better decisions, even though those decisions occur in an environment laden with risks and uncertainties. The test of the validity of forecasting only really comes with the passage of time. Yet, decisions need to be made in the present, and delaying them can also generate significant, even disastrous, costs.

Experience with the methods described in this book shows that better decisions can result when careful consideration of the future and its uncertainties is included in making and implementing decisions. Therefore, those who make decisions about the future of technologies must balance the desire for more and better information about the future with their limited resources and inevitable time constraints. If this book succeeds in producing better strategies and tactics, ones that have benefited from an informed look into the future that expands knowledge and reduces uncertainty, then its outcomes will have been worthwhile.