Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

9.6 Impact Evaluation

Evaluation is the process of assigning value. For a forecaster, the value of a significant impact depends on the goals of the forecast. These goals may include those of supporters, users, or society at large as well as those of the developing organization. For a technology development, impacts may be evaluated on the basis of whether they help or hinder achievement of these goals and how they do so. Goals may vary, sometimes significantly, from stakeholder to stakeholder, depending on their perspective. Knowing how they vary is important in impact evaluation in order to gauge the stakeholders' reactions. The evaluation process should go further to determine how the development and use of technology will mesh with societal values, which themselves often are in a state of flux. Actions to enhance or mitigate impacts may be identified during and after impact analysis. However, choosing what actions to take and how to take them are elements of utilizing the output of the forecast and are discussed in Chapter 11, “Implementing the Technology.”

In the private sector, possible new technology developments often are primarily evaluated on criteria related to the short-term return on investment. However, using only those criteria neglects strategic criteria that may affect the longer-term development and viability of the organization itself. For example, the Polaroid Corporation elected to play defense when confronted by the rapidly developing competitive technology ...