Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

2.4 Conclusion

The forecasting environment, like that of other activities, has changed. While long-term forecasts that give large, established organizations a view of the future remain important, rapid change and the increasing importance of small and medium-sized high-growth organizations probably has reduced the use of long-range projections. The continued role of the financial market in driving the short-term focus of major company executives also has inhibited long-range planning. However, forecasts based on the TDS approach continue to be valuable for start-up companies and for small and medium-sized technology-based companies that are vulnerable to all of the forces included in that model. Moreover, the changing names in Fortune's top 500 companies shows that even large firms with global reach and enormous financial power can blunder if they do not foresee and act on changes in their technologies and markets.

Expectations for forecasts should be realistic. Forecasting the future of new technologies is particularly difficult given the inherent lack of data and the complexity of the forces that will be relevant over time. Still, experience with the methods discussed in this book has shown that uncertainty can be reduced, broad indications of trends can be deduced, and areas of opportunity and threat can be identified through forecasting. Even imperfect results can be used by a technology manager to build better decisions. While technology forecasting provides some tools, these ...