Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

1.1 About This Book

The intent of this book is to make better managers for the twenty-first century. Almost any organization succeeds or fails because of the decisions of its managers. Evidence shows that the most critical role of managers is to anticipate and drive changes in both their organization and perhaps the world with which it interacts. For example, Henry Ford's decision to produce a motorcar for the masses dramatically altered life in the twentieth century. Technology is a primary cause of change. If managers are not successful in anticipating and rapidly adapting, the constantly changing environment will render their carefully designed structures unproductive. This is well known by the current managers of Ford, who have had to struggle for the company's survival.

The first edition of this book emphasized that technology is the key to productivity and change is a fact of life. Thus, technology managers must be able to forecast and assess technological change to obtain competitive advantage. Managers now embrace this view, and add global thinking and continuous, at times radical, technical change as essential survival skills. Much has been written about the potential and the difficulty of forecasting and managing technology as well as about the importance of knowledge as the basis of national, corporate, and individual prosperity. This book focuses on practical tools to produce information for making effective decisions about the future and on the actions needed to mold ...