Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

12.1 The Overall Approach

The process outlined in this book consists of three forecasting phases—exploring, analyzing, and focusing—followed by implementation that uses the forecasting outcomes to move the technology forward to utilization. To review:

• Exploring casts the broadest possible net consistent with forecast boundaries and resources to sweep in all possibly relevant information and to make sure that all potentially critical areas are included. The process of developing the technology delivery system (TDS) begins in this phase.
• Analyzing identifies areas worthy of further study and delves more deeply into them. The TDS is developed further, the scope of attention is narrowed, and detail is substantially increased.
• Focusing selects the few most promising alternatives and lays them out, along with possible impacts, in the greatest detail possible within the forecast bounds. In this phase, the TDS should provide both broad information about the technology and deep, highly focused information about its most promising aspects.

Implementing deals with the postforecast phase, in which the technology is either pursued or dropped. Forecasting does not cease when implementation begins. It continues at a reduced level to monitor developments that might prevent, enhance, or alter the implementation of the technology. Implementing continues throughout the life of the technology. Knowing when to move on is a highly desirable outcome of the process.

The flow of the process is straightforward: ...