Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition

7.5 Conclusions

The scenario analysis technique is versatile and rich. Of all the forecasting techniques, it may be best positioned to deal with fundamental uncertainty. Scenarios can clarify the range of uncertainties about the future and help forecasters, decision makers, and stakeholders acknowledge the unknown unknowns of the world. Scenario analysis can be effectively combined with other techniques—either by providing a narrative context for simulations or by providing an integrated framework for the norms and values of decision makers and key stakeholders. Since scenario analysis often is quite loosely applied, this chapter has sought to add structure by identifying three different types of scenario analyses that can be mixed or matched according to the needs of the forecast.

One of the principal virtues of the scenario analysis technique is that it can be used to integrate strategy, judgment, and value and effectively communicate the result. Scenario analysis is most effective when it engages decision makers and stakeholders and stimulates learning about the future. In this regard, the aims and outcomes of scenarios may be very different from those of the more quantitatively oriented technology forecasting.

The goal of the analyst is not necessarily to pursue precision when precision may not be obtainable. Instead, the analyst should be involved in helping decision makers pursue robust and adaptive decision making. Scenario analysis is an effective technique with which to ...