14.4. The Go/No Go Problem Revisited
The go/no go example of Section 14.2, having only two available alternatives, is simplistic. There is usually a larger set of decision alternatives. The company may try to out-licence the drug. It can decide to postpone the decision so that more information regarding the drug's likely effect and market potential can be collected. Even if the decision is to start a Phase III programme immediately, there are different possible designs for the program. Important design factors are which dose(s) to use and the sample size. All these examples may be modelled by including more decision nodes in the decision tree. In this section we will illustrate the possibility of adding decision nodes with a problem involving ...
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