Inference for Rare Events

Whatever the circumstance, we’ll describe the results using the success/failure terminology of binomial random variables and inference for proportions. A success might be a good thing (a customer who makes a purchase on a Web site) or a bad thing (a component fails a diagnostic test), but we’ll call them both successes. The probability of a success in the population is p.

In each of the three examples, we’re faced with data that have no sample variation.

  • Not one of the 43 patients on the placebo therapy in the clinical trial had a cardiac-related adverse event.

  • None of the 101 Aaa-rated issuers of corporate debt defaulted in 2010.

  • All of the 400 tested electronic components satisfied the acceptance test.

None of these ...

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