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The Little Book of Big Decision Models by Dr. Jim McGrath

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MODEL 2

THE MCNAMARA FALLACY: THE VITAL INFORMATION THAT DECISION MAKERS IGNORE (THE FIRST 11)

Use this to ensure that you take account of all the relevant data prior to making a decision.

During the Vietnam War the US Secretary of Defence Robert McNamara developed what has come to be known as the McNamara Fallacy. It was his attempt to understand why, for much of the war, America and its politicians thought that they were winning.

McNamara concluded that too much attention had been paid to hard measurable facts such as the number of Viet Cong killed or captured, while little or no attention had been given to the soft data such as enemy morale and the Vietnamese people’s desire to be free from foreign rule following the departure of the French ...

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