November 2015
Intermediate to advanced
224 pages
4h 26m
English
Content preview from The Little Book of Big Decision Models
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MODEL 13
DELPHIC FORECASTING AND HOW TO FIRM UP PREDICTIONS
Use this to collect, summarise and analyse the views of experts within your organisation on an issue under investigation.
The Delphic Forecasting method was developed for the American military in the 1950s and 60s. The name ‘Delphi’ refers to the Oracle of Delphi in Ancient Greece. However, the implications contained in the title do a disservice to the highly structured nature of Delphic Forecasting.
The process acts like a funnel. The number of answers is decreased as greater consensus is achieved between the experts.
DELPHIC FORECASTING INVOLVES SEVEN STAGES:
Identify the issue to be examined and select either an internal or external facilitator to run the forecasting exercise. ...
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