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The Little Book of Big Decision Models by Dr. Jim McGrath

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MODEL 12

SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND CHARTING POSSIBLE FUTURES

Use this to identify strategies that you can use to combat future threats.

Scenario Analysis (SA) attempts to predict the possible futures that an organisation might find itself inhabiting. Recognising that it’s impossible to predict accurately a single future, SA normally produces three scenarios, i.e. the pessimistic, optimistic and most likely outcomes. Given that discontinuous change is a feature of the modern world, SA does not use historical information in its predictions and nor does it extrapolate from past events. Instead its users try to identify future trends, changes, developments and turning points that will impinge on the organisation/decision.

Once the possible ‘future ...

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