Experiential Learning 8.1

Forecasting a Vital Energy Statistic

The following time-series data capture the weekly average of East Coast crude oil imports in thousands of barrels per day.

QUARTER 2 YEAR 1

QUARTER 3 YEAR 1

QUARTER 4 YEAR 1

QUARTER 1 YEAR 2

Week

Data

Week

Data

Week

Data

Week

Data

  1

1,160

14

1,116

27

1,073

40

  994

  2

  779

15

1,328

28

  857

41

1,307

  3

1,134

16

1,183

29

1,197

42

  997

  4

1,275

17

1,219

30

  718

43

1,082

  5

1,355

18

1,132

31

  817

44

  887

  6

1,513

19

1,094

32

  946

45

1,067

  7

1,394

20

1,040

33

  725

46

  890

  8

1,097

21

1,053

34

  748

47

  865

  9

1,206

22

1,232

35

1,031

48

  858

10

1,264

23

1,073

36

1,061

49

  814

11

1,153

24

1,329

37

1,074

50

  871

12

1,424

25

1,096

38

  941 ...

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