Concept
“Scenario Planning” is not what one thinks of immediately, the best case, most likely case, and worst case scenarios. Scenario Planning is not that. Rather it’s a process developed at the Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) strategic planning department when RDS was near the bottom of the seven sisters in the oil industry. Arie deGeus, Pierre Wack, Peter Schwartz, Les Grayson, and others developed this process to deal with the uncertainty of long-range strategic planning.
In sum, scenario planning is the careful development of a small set (perhaps three) alternative future scenarios that are, at the moment, equally plausible. These scenarios are not best/likely/worst cases, rather futures that could plausibly happen depending ...
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