September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
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■
157
13
章
シミュレーション
本章では、腎腫瘍の患者から出された問題に対する私の解を述べる。この問題は重
要で、このような腫瘍の患者や治療に当たる医師に参考になると思う。
また、この解は、問題に対するベイズ解法だが、ベイズ定理の使用は明示的でない
ことからも興味深いものだと思う。解法とコードを示し、本章の最後でベイズ部分につ
いて説明する。
ここで示したもの以上の技術的な詳細を知りたいなら、これについての私の論文を
読むことができる［
Downey 12a
］。
13.1
腎腫瘍問題
私は、
http://reddit.com/r/statistics
というオンライン統計フォーラムの読者で、時々
投稿もしている。
2011
年
11
月に次のようなメッセージがあった。
「私は腎臓癌の第
4
期で、この癌が軍を退役する前にできたものかを知りたい。…
退役した日付と癌が見つかった日付とから、その病気にかかった可能性が
50/50
に
なる時期を決めることは可能だろうか。退役した日の罹病確率を求めることは可能
だろうか。私の腫瘍は、発見時
15.5 cm
×
15 cm
、グレード
2
だった。」
私はメッセージを書いた人にコンタクトして、詳細を得た。退役軍人は、（他にも考
慮されることがあるが）「どちらかと言えば（
more likely than not
）」軍役に服していたと
きに癌にかかったと考えられるのであれば、さまざまな便益を得られることを知った。
腎腫瘍（
renal tumor
）はゆっくりと成長し、症候が出ないことが多いので、何の
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.