September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
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7.6
サドンデス
■
81
する。
2
つの分布の差を取ることは、「5.4 加数」で登場した加算とほぼ同じようなこ
とである。
ゴール差が正であればブルーインズが勝つ。負であればカナックスが勝つ。
0
なら引
き分けだ。
p_win = diff.ProbGreater(0)
p_loss = diff.ProbLess(0)
p_tie = diff.Prob(0)
前節の分布からは、
p_win
が
46%
、
p_loss
が
37%
、
p_tie
が
17%
である。
「制限プレイ」終了時点で同点の場合は、どちらかのチームが得点を挙げるまで延長
ピリオドを戦う。試合は最初のゴールで得点されると同時に終了するので、この延長時
間の試合方式は、「サドンデス（
sudden death
）」と言われる。
7.6
サドンデス
延長時間のサドンデスで勝つ確率を計算する。重要なのは、一試合ごとのゴール数
ではなく、最初のゴールまでの時間になる。ゴール得点がポワソン過程だという仮定が
意味するのは、ゴールからゴールまでの時間が指数的に分布するということである。
与えられた
lam
に対して、ゴール間の時間を次のように計算できる。
lam = 3.4
time_dist = thinkbayes.MakeExponentialPmf(lam, high=2, n=101)
high
は分布の上限である。この場合、得点がないままで
2
ピリオドより長くかかる確
率は低いので、
2
を選んだ。
n
は
Pmf
での値の個数である。
lam
を正確に知っていればよいのだが、実際に
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.