September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
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152
■
12
章
証拠
事後確率 780
事後確率 740
効力
図 12-4 アリスとボブの効力の事後確率分布
TopLevel
を使うことにより、再度、アリスの効力の方が高いという仮説
A
とボブの
効力の方が高いという仮説
B
とを比較する。尤度比は
3.4
であり、単純なモデルで得た
値（
3.8
）より少し小さい。したがって、このモデルは、データが
A
を支持するものであ
ることを示すが、前の推定よりも若干弱い。
もし、私たちの事前信念が
A
も
B
も同じようなものであれば、この証拠は、
A
の事後
確率を
77%
にして、ボブの効力の方が高いという機会を
23%
残す。
12.8
予測分布
ここまでの分析では、アリスとボブの効力の推定を生成してきたが、効力は直接観
察できるものではないから結果の検証は難しい。
モデルに予測能力を与えれば、それを使って次のような関連質問に答えられる。「ア
リスとボブが
SAT
の数学の試験を再度受けたとしたら、アリスの点数のほうが高くなる
機会はどの程度だろうか？」
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.