September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.
6.8
最善な推定
■
69
図6-3は、実際の値段に対する事前及び事後の信念を表す。事後信念は、推量が事
前信念の範囲の低い方の端だったので、左側にずれている。
あるレベルでは、この結果は納得できる。事前信念の最頻値は
27,750
ドル、最善推
定は
20,000
ドル、事後信念の平均値は約
25,096
ドルとなる。
別のレベルでは、この結果を異様だと思うだろう。値段を
20,000
ドルだと考えたな
ら値段を
24,000
ドルだと信じるべきだ、と言っていることになるからだ。
この見かけ上のパラドックスを解くには、過去のショーケースについての歴史上の
データと、対象の賞品についての推測という
2
種類の情報源を組み合わせていることを
覚えておかねばならない。
過去のデータを事前確率として扱い、自分の推測に基づいて更新しているのだが、
推測を事前確率として、過去のデータに基づいて更新することも同様に可能なので
ある。
そのように考え
るならば、事後確率で最もあり得る値が、元の推定ではないことも、
それほど驚くべきことではないかもしれない。
6.8
最善な推定
事後確率分布があるので、これを使って最適な推測、すなわち、期待値を最大化で
きる推測値を計算できる（
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_return
参照）。
本節ではトップダウンで、手法を提示する。つまり、どのように使われるかをまず示
してから、どのようになっているかを示す。知らない手法だからと言って心配しないで
ほしい。定義もすぐ後
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.