September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.
30
■
3
章
推定
interval = cdf.Percentile(5), cdf.Percentile(95)
Pmf
から
Cdf
への変換には、値の個数
len(pmf)
に比例した時間がかかる。
Cdf
は、値
と確率とをソートしたリストに保存するので、確率から対応する値を取り出すには、「対
数時間」が必要となる。すなわち、値の個数の対数に比例する時間がかかる。値から対
応する確率を取り出す場合も対数的なので、
Cdf
は、多くの計算で効率的である。
本節の例は、
http://thinkbayes.com/train3.py
からダウンロードできる。詳細につい
ては、まえがきの「コードについて」（
ix
ページ）を参照のこと。
3.7
ドイツ軍戦車問題
第二次大戦中、ロンドンにある米国大使館の経済戦争部門（
Economic Warfare
Division
）は、統計分析によってドイツの戦車やその他軍備の生産量を推定した
＊
1
、＊
2
。
連合軍は、個別の戦車について、シャーシーやエンジンのシリアルナンバーをはじめ
とする運行記録、在庫目録、修理記録などを入手していた。
これらの記録の分
析から、シリアルナンバーには、製造者と戦車の型番が
100
ブロッ
クに割り当てられ、各ブロックでは数が順々に使われ、各ブロックのすべての数が使わ
れているわけではないことがわかった。したがって、ドイツ軍戦車の生産台数を推定す
るという問題は、
100
個の各ブロックで、機関車問題に帰着できた。
これらの洞察から、連合軍側の分析担当者は、他の諜報情報よ ...
Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
and much more.
Read now
Unlock full access
More than 5,000 organizations count on O’Reilly
O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.