September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
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140
■
11
章
仮説検定
11.5
練習問題
問題
11-1
超能力（
extra-sensory perception
：
ESP
）の存在を信じている人々がいる。例えば、
偶然よりは高い確率でカードの表の数字を裏から当てるような能力のことだ。
この種の
ESP
に対する事前確信度はどのようなものだろうか。存在は半々程度だと
思うか、あるいは、存在の可能性は低いと思うか。オッズを書け。
ESP
が少なくとも
50%
で存在すると確信させる証拠の強さの程度を計算せよ。
90%
で
ESP
が存在すると確信するのに必要なベイズ因子はどうなるか。
問題
11-2
前の問題に対する自分の答えが
1,000
であったと仮定しよう。すなわち、信念を変え
るには、
ESP
が存在するというベイズ因子
1,000
の証拠があれば十分だとする。
信頼性の高い専門的な科学誌で
ESP
が存在するというベイズ因子
1,000
の証拠を掲
載した論文を読んだと仮定しよう。これは信念を変えるだろうか。
もし変え
ないとしたら、この明らかな矛盾をあなたはどのように解消するのだろうか。
David Hume
の「人間知性研究（
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding
）」に
ある「
Of Miracles
」（
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Of_Miracles
）という章を読むと参考
になるかもしれない
＊
1
。
＊
1
訳注：邦訳は、斉藤繁雄・一ノ瀬正樹訳、『人間知性研究
−
付・人間本性論摘要』、法政大学出
版局、
2004
。
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.