September 2014
Intermediate to advanced
236 pages
4h 17m
Japanese
Content preview from Think Bayes ―プログラマのためのベイズ統計入門
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■
75
7
章
予測
7.1
ボストン・ブルーインズ問題
2010-11
年の北米プロアイスホッケーリーグ（
National Hockey League, NHL
）最終戦
において、我が愛するボストン・ブルーインズ（
Boston Bruins
）は、にっくきバンクー
バー・カナックス（
Vancouver Canucks
）と
7
回戦のチャンピオンシリーズを戦った。ボ
ストンは、最初の
2
戦を
0-1
、
2-3
で落とし、次の
2
戦を
8-1
、
4-0
で勝った。この時点で、
ボストンが次の試合に勝つ確率はどれぐらいだろうか。そして、優勝する確率はどの
ぐらいだろうか。
いつものことだが、このような質問に答えるには、いくつかの仮定が必要となる。ま
ず、ホッケーにおける得点数は少なくともポワソン過程で近似できる。すなわち、ゲー
ムにおいて点が入るのはいつも同じ確率であると信じるのが妥当である。第
2
に、特定
の対戦相手に対して、各チームは、
λ
で示される長期に渡る平均得点数があると仮定で
きる。
このような仮定の下で、上の質問に答える戦略は次のようになる。
1.
これまでの試合の統計データを使って、
λ
に対する事前確率分布を選ぶ。
2.
最初の
4
試合の得点を用いて、各チームの
λ
を推定する。
3.
λ
の事後確率分布を使って、各チームの得点の分布を求め、さらに、得点差の分
布と次の試合に各チームが勝つ確率を計算する。
4.
各チームがチャンピオンシリーズに勝つ確率を計算する。
事前確率分布を選ぶために、
http://www.nhl.com
から統計デ
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I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.