Hands-On Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

How to interpret GBM results

Understanding why a model predicts a certain outcome is very important for several reasons, including trust, actionability, accountability, and debugging. Insights into the nonlinear relationship between features and the outcome uncovered by the model, as well as interactions among features, are also of value when the goal is to learn more about the underlying drivers of the phenomenon under study.

A common approach to gaining insights into the predictions made by tree ensemble methods, such as gradient boosting or random forest models, is to attribute feature importance values to each input variable. These feature importance values can be computed on an individual basis for a single prediction or globally for ...