THEORY 67
SCENARIO PLANNING
Use to identify possible futures for your organisation or team and plan for how to deal with them.
Scenario planning is as old as humankind. It involves asking the ‘What will happen if?’ question. Of course no one can predict the future but that hasn’t stopped people trying.
Change does not progress in a nice straight line. It occurs in fits and starts. That means it’s impossible to extrapolate what the future will look like based upon what happened today. In an attempt to get a handle on the future managers can use quantitative data (facts, figures, forecasts), qualitative data (people’s opinions about what is going to happen) or a combination of both. Most commentators recommend that forecasts use a combination ...
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