April 2004
Beginner to intermediate
256 pages
8h 58m
English
book
The Project Management Tool Kit: 100 Tips and Techniques for Getting the Job Done Right
by Tom Kendrick
Content preview from The Project Management Tool Kit: 100 Tips and Techniques for Getting the Job Done Right
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Consider Risks and Alternatives
Once you have made a “most likely” duration estimate, probe for failure modes and potential problems. Determine the timing consequences of worst cases.
You may adjust estimates for uncertainty using the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) formula: te = (to + 4tm + tp)/6, where te is a weighted average “expected” duration, based on to: an optimistic duration, tm: the most likely duration, and tp: a pessimistic duration.
For estimates in which you have low confidence, seek alternative ways of performing the work that rely on older, more established methods that can be estimated more accurately.
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