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The Project Management Tool Kit: 100 Tips and Techniques for Getting the Job Done Right by Tom Kendrick

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Consider Risks and Alternatives

Once you have made a “most likely” duration estimate, probe for failure modes and potential problems. Determine the timing consequences of worst cases.

You may adjust estimates for uncertainty using the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) formula: te = (to + 4tm + tp)/6, where te is a weighted average “expected” duration, based on to: an optimistic duration, tm: the most likely duration, and tp: a pessimistic duration.

For estimates in which you have low confidence, seek alternative ways of performing the work that rely on older, more established methods that can be estimated more accurately.

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