
6
CHAPTER SIX
Human Capital
Analytics: The Leading
Edge of Measurement
‘‘In these matters the only certainty is that nothing is certain.’’
—P
LINY THE
E
LDER
In October 1996, doctors predicted that Lance Armstrong
would be dead from cancer in less than six months. In July
1999, he won the Tour de France. Over the next six years, he
won every time for an unequalled seven victories.
Prediction is a fine but dangerous art. If anyone really
knew with certainty what was going to happen tomorrow,
much less a year or more from now, that person’s advice
would be prohibitively expensive. I don’t claim for a mo-
ment to know with certainty what will happen tomorrow
around ...